A growing axis of authoritarianism across the world threatens the democracies that remain, of which there are only a handful (24) that The Economist Intelligence Unit classifies as “full democracies”. In its 2023 index of democratic health — Age of Conflict — South Africa fell two places from its 2022 rank. We are placed at 47 (out of 167 countries).
Our real downfall is in the category of “Political Culture”, in which we score five (out of a possible 10). Electoral processes are sound and the government functions (depending on where you live) relatively well, on average. Political participation is also relatively strong (though that will fall in the wake of poor turnout at the 29 May elections this year) and civil liberties are largely intact.
Overall, we’ve dropped from a score of 7.91 in 2006 to 7.05 in 2023. In a world where the average score across all countries has fallen from around 5.525 in 2006 to just above 5.2 in 2023, it is important for democracies to hold their ground. Nearly 40% of the world’s population now lives under authoritarian rule.
After the end of the Cold War in 1989, there was a general sense of optimism that countries would grow increasingly democratic and that liberal democratic capitalism would win out over communist-style authoritarianism. More than a few recent books have set out to ascertain why this did not come to fruition.
Even those who acquiesced to the “China model” after the country’s return to the World Trade Organisation in 1995 expected that increasing economic interdependence would keep aggression between sovereign states at bay. After Russia’s violation of multiple sovereign borders since then, that theory has been abandoned.
The only theory that really seems to hold is that democracies tend not to go to war with each other. This is something worth holding on to, though it appears increasingly difficult to do so when democracies need to make decisions about whether to protect other democracies against invasion from authoritarian bullies.
Citizens get tired of forking out cash for arms to fortify Ukraine, for instance, and unscrupulous politicians can capitalise on that understandable reluctance to promise economic results from a more insular and less globally caring strategy. Having a bulwark against authoritarian advance is crucial for the world’s remaining democracies.
For South Africa, this means that the government of national unity (GNU) — a brilliant representation of what can happen in a democracy when the incumbent abuses its power for too long — has an opportunity to consolidate its democracy and build a much stronger democratic culture.
There are at least 10 priority areas that the unity government needs to tackle if it is to strengthen South Africa’s democracy in the face of growing voter dissatisfaction. The first three are outlined here.
Deepening political accountability
At the core of South Africa’s story of deteriorating democracy is a crisis of political accountability. Citizens feel disconnected from their elected officials, especially between elections. The most significant way the government of national unity can deepen political accountability is through electoral reform. Introducing a political system where some members of parliament and the provincial legislatures are elected directly can play a large role in embedding popular legitimacy as a key and regular feature of South African democracy both within and between elections.
Fostering greater public involvement
A lack of direct political accountability partially accounts for the fact that voter turnout and registration rates in South Africa have plummeted to new lows. This decline is especially pronounced among the “youth” age cohort of 18 to 34. They are the electorate of the future; their current dissatisfaction with South Africa’s political system does not augur well for the long-term durability of that system.
We need to build and support communities of young people who will be actively involved in democratic governance processes beyond the ballot box. Voting is a necessary, but insufficient, condition for engagement. It’s often what happens between elections that is more important for ensuring sensible policymaking and service delivery. Providing written input on draft policy proposals hardly seems glamorous but that is often where the real value lies in ensuring a delivery dividend from democracy.
Preparing well for the ‘coalitions era’
It is especially important for South Africans to be involved during the volatility of the coalitions era — our foreseeable future. Coalitions are a form of government implicitly built into the nation’s constitutional framework, especially because of the requirement that representation in South Africa’s elected assemblies maintain a general degree of proportionality — vote shares should closely equate with final representative balances post-election.
From 2016, coalitions became much more prevalent at the local government level, with varying levels of durability and effectiveness. But, of significant concern is that many of the most unstable coalitions have adversely affected governance in some of South Africa’s largest cities, such as Johannesburg and Tshwane.
Over the past 18 months, we have called for an independent panel to examine coalition dynamics, tried to help citizens to understand the coalitions landscape and argued that formalised agreements are critical to ensuring coalition stability.
Much else can follow from here. We must build high-quality institutions that institutionalise constraints against the abuse of executive power and deliver a stable political equilibrium without compromising competitiveness. This creates a foundation on which strong economic institutions—contracts are credibly honoured, property is protected, and the rules of the game for investing are clear and stable—can be built.
The economic dynamism that follows is what delivers a genuine democratic dividend. A positive economic dividend, in turn, reinforces a stable political equilibrium. These new-path dependencies will create a virtuous cycle out of the dilapidation and despair that has crept into South Africa since 1994.
In the global context of growing authoritarianism — united by their joint desire to destroy democracies — this effort could not be more important. Democracies that fail to deliver economic fruit to a broad swathe of citizens are especially susceptible to the tactics of destabilisation, including through the insidious spreading of disinformation. Keeping citizens engaged in the duty of accountability in an age of distraction will be the litmus test.
This article first appeared in Mail & Guardian.
Dr Ross Harvey is a natural resource economist and policy analyst, and he has been dealing with governance issues in various forms across this sector since 2007. He has a PhD in economics from the University of Cape Town, and his thesis research focused on the political economy of oil and institutional development in Angola and Nigeria. While completing his PhD, Ross worked as a senior researcher on extractive industries and wildlife governance at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), and in May 2019 became an independent conservation consultant. Ross’s task at GGA is to establish a non-renewable natural resources project (extractive industries) to ensure that the industry becomes genuinely sustainable and contributes to Africa achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ross was appointed Director of Research and Programmes at GGA in May 2020.
